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Global Supply Chain Restructuring: What Are Korea's Options?

경제_금융 2026-04-16 경제/금융

From Efficiency to Resilience: The World Economy's Choice Global events such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war have triggered fundamental changes in the world economy. This shift is not merely an issue for a single nation or company but signifies a paradigm shift in 'global supply chains,' which have been the bedrock of international economic cooperation. Prior to the pandemic, supply chains focused on maximizing efficiency, but today's challenges are centered around a new concept: 'resilience.' So, will this change be limited to simple policy adjustments? Or will it lead to substantial structural changes in the international economy? South Korea, with its highly export-dependent economic structure, is inevitably sensitive to such global supply chain restructuring. As of 2025, Korea's trade dependency (sum of exports and imports/GDP) stands at approximately 82%, placing it among the highest among major OECD countries. Notably, exports from key industries such as semiconductors, automobiles, and petrochemicals account for over 60% of total exports. Major economic powers are already adopting new supply chain strategies like reshoring and friend-shoring, moving towards reducing geopolitical risks and dependencies. Let's delve into how South Korea should respond to this trend and what implications it needs to consider. First, the core of global supply chain restructuring is shifting from mere cost reduction to ensuring agility and stability. A recent column by Gillian Tett in the Financial Times persuasively explains the background of this supply chain transformation, moving 'from efficiency to resilience.' Tett diagnoses that the pandemic and geopolitical conflicts have accelerated this change, pointing out that national protectionist policies like reshoring and friend-shoring might offer short-term stability but could ultimately lead to increased global trade costs and slower economic growth in the long run. Indeed, according to a 2025 report by the World Bank, trade costs due to supply chain restructuring are projected to increase by an average of 12-18% over the next five years, warning that this could reduce global GDP growth by 0.3-0.5 percentage points annually. This is a factor that South Korea, with its export-based economic system, must seriously consider. An industrial structure heavily reliant on supply chain efficiency and cost advantages could become a relative weakness. Reshoring refers to a policy where producers and consumers are located in the same country, bringing production bases back to the domestic market. The movement by major countries to strengthen industrial resilience through reshoring is exerting significant adaptive pressure on South Korea. The United States decided to invest $52.7 billion in semiconductor manufacturing through the 2022 CHIPS and Science Act, and the European Union also announced €43 billion in support for the semiconductor industry through the 2023 European Chips Act. These policies are fundamentally reshaping the global semiconductor supply chain landscape. While South Korea holds a significant position as a major supplier, accounting for approximately 60% of the global memory semiconductor market and about 19% of the overall semiconductor market, it remains vulnerable due to its reliance on imported raw materials and fluctuating overseas market conditions. According to the Korea Semiconductor Industry Association, approximately 65% of silicon wafers essential for semiconductor manufacturing are imported from Japan, about 92% of photoresists from Japan and the United States, and about 70% of rare gases like neon and krypton from Ukraine and Russia. A prime example is the concern over production disruptions faced by Korean semiconductor companies immediately after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022 due to rare gas supply shortages. Localizing supply chains can mitigate this risk but may also lead to increased manufacturing costs and weakened technological competitiveness. A 2025 study by the Institute for International Trade, under the Korea International Trade Association, estimates that if Korean companies pursue full reshoring, production costs would increase by an average of 25-40%. Alongside this, the friend-shoring strategy, actively pursued by several nations, presents a critical decision-making factor for South Korea. This approach involves building supply chains among geopolitically trustworthy nations, aiming to decouple from partners with high uncertainties like China and Russia. Since U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen first officially mentioned it in 2022, friend-shoring has become a core strategy for economic cooperation between the U.S. and its allies. For instance, the U.S. and the European Union are strengthening cooperation in semiconductors, batteries, and clean energy, and establishing an early warning system for supply chains through the U.S.-EU Trade and Technology Council (TTC). The U.S. has also signed a supp