We are currently at the heart of the global economy, facing the aftermath of international turmoil caused by the Middle East Iran War and the increasingly complex economic landscape it has created. A report titled 'Global Inflation Shock: Central Banks and Uneven Price Pressures,' published by BCA Research on April 27, 2026, provides a data-driven, in-depth analysis of the impact of soaring energy prices due to the Iran War on global inflation. The report identifies the current situation as the fourth major inflationary shock of the 2020s. The first was the reopening after COVID-19, the second was the Russia-Ukraine War, and the third was the imposition of US tariffs in 2025. Now, the Iran War is shaking the global economy as the fourth shockwave. Data clearly shows that these consecutive shocks are not merely confined to the energy sector but are leading to a chain reaction across the entire global economy. Recently released April Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data distinctly indicates rising price pressures in major countries excluding the United States, particularly in Europe and Japan. According to BCA Research's analysis, inflationary pressures are distinctly uneven across regions, stemming from differences in each country's energy supply and demand structure and their vulnerability due to reliance on the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical passage for global oil maritime transport, and Iran's geopolitical instability is inflicting more severe blows on energy-import-dependent nations like Europe and Japan. While the United States, with its relatively higher energy independence, is less affected by this shock, it cannot be entirely free from its impact in a global economy interconnected by supply chains. South Korea, too, finds it difficult to avoid the consequences of this Iran War due to its extremely high external dependence on its energy supply structure. Korea imports most of its crude oil from the Middle East, and a significant portion of its natural gas also relies on overseas sources. Soaring crude oil and gas prices are expected to increase energy import costs, which will likely lead to higher domestic prices and a weakening of real purchasing power. The surge in energy prices directly drives up transportation costs, manufacturing expenses, and electricity rates, which in turn extends its impact to the prices of essential consumer goods such as food, clothing, and household items. For a country like South Korea, with a manufacturing and export-oriented economic structure, rising energy costs could lead to a weakening of overall industrial competitiveness, causing significant concern. One of the most crucial insights from the BCA Research report is the limited role central banks can play in addressing supply-side inflation shocks. Typically, central banks control inflation by adjusting demand through interest rate changes. However, the inflation caused by the current Iran War is supply-side driven, with rising energy prices being the primary cause. In such a situation, even if interest rates are raised, the effect on curbing inflation will inevitably be limited because the energy supply itself cannot be increased. On the contrary, excessive interest rate hikes could lead to adverse effects such as slowing economic growth and increasing unemployment. The report analyzes that most major central banks are expected to freeze interest rates as long as long-term inflation expectations do not become unstable. The Bank of Korea also faces a complex dilemma amidst this global trend. While raising interest rates in a situation of persistent price pressures due to rising energy prices could partially curb inflation, it simultaneously risks slowing economic growth through increased household debt burdens, dampened consumption, and reduced corporate investment. Conversely, freezing or lowering interest rates could maintain economic vitality but might exacerbate inflation. Considering the limited tools available to central banks for supply-side shocks, as analyzed by BCA Research, the Bank of Korea is likely to manage its interest rate policy cautiously while stably managing long-term inflation expectations. Interest rate freezes are likely to persist for the time being, a direction consistent with the actions of major global central banks. This situation clearly demonstrates the international need to re-evaluate energy supply and demand structures and their regional impacts. Since the shale revolution, the United States has significantly increased its energy independence, making it relatively less sensitive to changes in the Middle East situation. Europe, however, despite efforts to reduce its reliance on Russian gas after the Russia-Ukraine War, remains vulnerable in terms of energy security. Japan, following the Fukushima nuclear accident, saw a decrease in its nuclear power generation share, leading to increased reliance on fossil fuel imports; recently, it has been pursuing long-term
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