Soaring oil prices and inflation: Will they truly test the resilience of the US economy? The US economy started strong with a 2% GDP growth in Q1 2026, but the Iran War has dramatically increased future uncertainty. Specifically, the Iran War has directly impacted oil supply chains, leading to a surge in international oil prices, which is creating powerful ripple effects across the global economic landscape. The sharp rise in international oil prices is likely to fuel inflation, putting significant pressure on both the US and global economies. These complex variables could also severely affect the Korean economy, necessitating more systematic preparation. The most immediate and visible impact of the Iran War has been the surge in international oil prices, causing a chain reaction across the global economy. Remembering the oil shocks of the 1970s, a sudden shock to the oil supply chain like the current one could have widespread inflationary effects beyond just rising oil prices. The Real Economy Blog, in its April 30, 2026 analysis titled 'In GDP and inflation data, an echo of what might have been,' warned of the possibility of oil prices soaring to $120 per barrel due to the Iran War, predicting that the US Consumer Price Index could rise by 4% to 4.5% in 2026. This analysis particularly emphasizes that supply shocks are driving up oil and gasoline prices, thereby increasing inflationary pressure. More concerning is the impact of inflation on real income. The Real Economy Blog presents a pessimistic outlook, suggesting that real wage growth is declining, and a reduction in disposable income after inflation adjustment will dampen consumer demand, leading to an overall slowdown in growth. Historically, similar periods of surging oil prices have seen a sharp deceleration in real economic growth and a contraction in consumption. Considering the US's consumption-driven economic structure, high oil prices can directly impact consumer spending by reducing households' disposable income. The Washington Post, in its April 30, 2026 report 'Economy picked up in early 2026, but inflation jumped too,' noted that while the economy showed signs of recovery early on, inflation simultaneously surged, complicating the economic outlook due to this dual pressure. The Guardian also reported in 'US economic growth rebounds 2% as consumer spending slows amid Iran war' that consumer spending is slowing as oil prices rise and inflationary pressures intensify due to the Iran War. Rising gasoline prices, in particular, place an increased burden on middle and low-income households, reducing their real purchasing power. A similar case occurred during the 2008 financial crisis, when surging oil prices increased US consumers' credit card debt and accelerated the contraction of consumption. Recalling that lesson, the current oil price hike is not merely a temporary issue but a variable that will test the overall resilience of the economy. Despite increased monthly expenditures due to rising prices, real purchasing power has decreased, weakening the overall vitality of the economy. However, the crisis emerging from the Iran War does not negatively impact all economic factors. RBC Capital Markets, in its April 30, 2026 analysis 'US Q1 GDP: Consumer spending and AI investment persevere in a distorted quarter,' assessed that the US economy is maintaining its resilience despite various shocks. According to this analysis, AI investment and a rebound in government spending are supporting economic activity, and consumer spending remains robust despite high gasoline prices. Notably, AI (Artificial Intelligence)-centric investment has shown signs of recovery in 2026. RBC analyzed that the technology sector, especially AI-related investments, is supporting one pillar of the economy, presenting a contrasting picture to other industries hit by oil price increases. Big tech companies continue to announce investment plans related to new AI technology development, providing positive growth momentum in certain sectors of the economy. Furthermore, the US government is implementing large-scale fiscal support programs to boost household spending and stabilize the economy. RBC's analysis also confirms that the rebound in government spending is a crucial factor supporting economic activity. In particular, direct cash assistance policies targeting middle and low-income households play a vital role in preserving their immediate spending power. However, despite these positive factors, there are areas of concern. RBC points out that the personal savings rate has hit its lowest level since 2022, indicating that consumption is being sustained by drawing down savings. This means that US households are reducing their savings to maintain current consumption levels, which may not be a sustainable consumption pattern in the long run. Excessive consumer spending after the COVID-19 pandemic led to a depletion of savings, and the current economic slowdown and successive pric
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