The End of Easy Globalization, The Emergence of a Multipolar Economic Order For the past 30 years, the global economy has operated under a single, U.S.-led economic order. This era, dubbed 'easy globalization,' characterized by cheap raw materials, liberalized global trade, and political stability, enabled remarkable growth and prosperity. However, these foundational pillars are now gradually crumbling, and a multipolar global economic order is taking their place. Sahil Mahtani, Director of Research at Ninety One, deeply analyzed these structural changes in his recently published report, 'The End of Easy Globalization: A New Era of Constraint, Competition, and Volatility.' He diagnoses the collapse of the U.S.-led model that sustained the global economy for the past three decades, a model built on stability, affordable raw materials, and broad political consensus. These are being replaced by three structural factors: geopolitical competition, resource constraints, and deepening public dissatisfaction. First, 'easy globalization' refers to an economic environment where production and markets move freely across borders. Many countries benefited from global supply chains during this process, and South Korea was a prime example, reaping the fruits of growth in its semiconductor and automotive industries. However, experts like Mahtani point out that this model is no longer sustainable due to challenges such as geopolitical competition, resource scarcity, and increasing political instability within nations. As global economic power disperses into a multipolar form, including the U.S., China, and influential middle powers in the Middle East and Asia, industries, technology, and trade policies are entering a new phase, intricately intertwined in a 'gray zone.' Mahtani's report emphasizes that this shift is not merely a cyclical adjustment but a structural transformation. Competition in this 'gray zone' is intensifying across all domains, including trade policy, technology standards, cybersecurity strategies, and industrial policy, compelling both investors and policymakers to reconsider their existing assumptions about growth, inflation, and market stability. Nations are now fostering policy environments that prioritize their national interests, economic security, and domestic stability over global integration. Particularly noteworthy here is the intensification of 'geopolitical competition.' The hegemonic rivalry between the U.S. and China has now expanded beyond traditional trade disputes into advanced sectors such as technology and cybersecurity. As competition for technological supremacy intensifies in high-value industries like semiconductors, South Korea faces a dilemma, forced to choose between the U.S. and China. While South Korea's semiconductor industry holds a pivotal position in the global supply chain, this also means it is more vulnerable to geopolitical pressures. As global technological competition deepens, effective diplomatic responses and securing strategic autonomy for South Korea are becoming increasingly important. The second structural factor, resource constraints, is an element that could directly hit South Korea. As shortages of key resources such as natural gas, raw materials, and rare minerals persist, the South Korean economy is fully bearing the burden of intensifying supply chain disruptions and rising costs. South Korea, which relies on imports for most of its energy resources, is directly impacted by these global resource turbulences. Increased volatility in raw material prices and supply chain uncertainties are exerting continuous inflationary pressure on South Korea's manufacturing-centric economy. The Future Brought by Geopolitical Competition and Resource Constraints The third, and often overlooked, factor is public disaffection. Mahtani points out that political discontent among the public is growing in many countries as the benefits of globalization have been unevenly distributed. This has led to the rise of populism, the strengthening of protectionist policies, and domestic-first approaches. Governments are becoming more responsive to the demands of their domestic constituents than to global integration, which complicates international cooperation. South Korea also faces internal challenges such as income inequality and youth unemployment, which serve as significant constraints to be considered when formulating external economic policies. The question is what strategy the South Korean economy will adopt amidst this triple challenge of multipolar competition, resource constraints, and public disaffection. Recently, South Korea has been strengthening its advanced technology-focused industrial strategy, which is considered an appropriate direction for responding to the challenges of the multipolar era. Furthermore, efforts are underway to secure a competitive edge amidst geopolitical uncertainties by continuously upgrading South Korea's key industries, semiconductors and battery
Related Articles