What would happen if a large-scale war broke out in the Middle East involving Iran? This is not merely a hypothetical question but a scenario seriously considered by global security experts. The Atlantic Council, a prominent U.S. think tank, recently published a report outlining four scenarios for how the geopolitics of the Middle East might be reshaped after a hypothetical Iran war. This analysis offers significant implications not only for the future of the Middle East but also for the energy security and economic strategies of nations worldwide, including South Korea. The Atlantic Council's scenario analysis is structured around two key variables. The first is the extent of U.S. military involvement in the Gulf region, specifically whether it would be limited to targeted strikes or escalate into sustained and widespread intervention. The second is China's post-war stance toward Iran, whether it would remain passive economic opportunism or evolve into active strategic engagement. The combination of these two axes could lead to vastly different geopolitical futures for the Middle East. The first scenario combines limited U.S. military intervention with a passive Chinese economic approach. In this scenario, the U.S. would conduct precision strikes to weaken Iran's military capabilities, avoiding a full-scale war or long-term occupation. This strategy reflects lessons learned from the Iraq War, aiming to neutralize Iran's key military infrastructure, such as nuclear facilities and missile bases, while minimizing domestic U.S. public opposition and international criticism. Simultaneously, China would deepen economic ties with a weakened Iran, but refrain from substantial alliance-level involvement, such as forming a trilateral alliance with Russia or providing military support. A key premise of this scenario is that disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz remain manageable. The Strait of Hormuz is a strategic chokepoint through which approximately 21% of the world's seaborne oil passes. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), an average of about 21 million barrels of crude oil per day is projected to pass through it by 2025. If the Strait operates normally, the global energy system could largely remain stable. However, this relies on the optimistic assumption that Iran would not resort to the extreme measure of blockading the Strait. The second scenario involves a war ending in a truce without a comprehensive resolution, with China opting for active strategic engagement with Iran. In this scenario, China would strengthen material support, intelligence sharing, and diplomatic cover for Iran, deepening a China-Russia-Persia alliance. This would effectively tie down the U.S. in the Middle East, diverting its strategic resources from the Indo-Pacific region. At the same time, it would aid Iran's rapid recovery, fostering the consolidation of anti-U.S. forces in the Middle East. Such a development aligns with China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) strategy. China already signed a 25-year comprehensive strategic partnership agreement with Iran in 2021, which includes a $400 billion investment plan. A weakened Iran post-war would become even more reliant on Chinese economic support, allowing China to significantly expand its influence in the Persian Gulf and the broader Middle East. This would fundamentally challenge the U.S.-led order that has persisted in the Middle East since the 1970s. The third and fourth scenarios address a prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has repeatedly threatened to blockade the Strait in the past, and in 2019, it escalated tensions by seizing a British vessel. If Iran weaponizes the Strait during a full-scale war, global crude oil supply chains could face severe disruption. The economic repercussions of a Strait blockade could be unimaginable. Even during Iran's ship attacks in 2019, crude oil prices surged by $4-5 per barrel in a short period. There are projections that a long-term blockade could push crude oil prices above $150 per barrel. This could trigger the most severe energy crisis since the 1970s oil shocks, potentially leading to a cascade of economic crises including soaring global inflation, supply chain paralysis, and recession. In the event of a prolonged Strait blockade, countries' responses would also differ. The U.S. and its Western allies would attempt to secure alternative routes and pursue military solutions. Indeed, the U.S. consistently deploys aircraft carrier strike groups to the Middle East and maintains its Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain. China, on the other hand, would likely leverage its relationship with Iran to secure energy supplies, further intensifying U.S.-China competition over energy security. **A New Battlefield for US-China Hegemonic Competition** **Global Impact of Strait of Hormuz Blockade** The Atlantic Council's analysis draws attention because it frames the Iran war scenario not m
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