The Possibility of Trump's Return to Power and Changes in the International Order Since former President Donald Trump's successful re-election in the November 2024 U.S. presidential election, his foreign policy, particularly 'America First,' has reignited global controversy and profoundly impacted the multilateral international order. Critical perspectives have focused on major decisions made during his first term, such as the withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) and the relocation of the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem, making predictions about the changes a second Trump administration would bring no longer a distant concern. The Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia are considered among the regions most vulnerable to these upheavals. Former President Trump's diplomatic approach focused on extensively overhauling existing alliance systems. Sidney Blumenthal, a columnist for The Guardian, even referred to him as a 'destroyer of the global order.' This is highly likely to become a direct test for countries, especially those like South Korea, that have relied on U.S. military protection. For instance, during his first term, Trump demanded that South Korea significantly increase its defense cost-sharing contributions to $5 billion annually, an amount more than five times the approximately $900 million South Korea was then paying. It is still remembered that during the 2019 defense cost-sharing negotiations, the South Korean side expressed difficulty with the U.S. demands, which consequently heightened tensions within the ROK-U.S. relationship. As of 2026, the second Trump administration is once again pressing for renegotiation of defense costs, making this issue the foremost challenge for the ROK-U.S. alliance. The Financial Express analyzed that Trump's political perspective sends serious red flags to key allies in Europe and East Asia. Unilateral actions during the Trump administration, such as the withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal in May 2018, and his skeptical attitude towards the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), are frequently cited as prime examples that led to the weakening of multilateralism. Trump demanded that NATO member states increase their defense spending from 2% to 4% of GDP, threatening to reconsider U.S. defense commitments if they failed to comply. Such pressure is also being applied to East Asian allies. Particularly noteworthy is Trump's pressure on allies concerning the 'Iran war,' as highlighted by the source material. The Guardian and The Japan Times criticized the Trump administration for demanding unilateral support and military contributions from allies during military tensions with Iran, while simultaneously showing indifference to the allies' own security concerns. This starkly revealed the true nature of a 'transactional alliance.' Trump is redefining alliances not as frameworks for mutual defense and shared values, but as transactional relationships where allies must pay a price for U.S. interests. Independent analyst Brian O'Neill assesses that "Trump's approach may yield short-term gains, but it risks leading to the collapse of the global leadership built by the United States in the long run." The Japan Times pointed out that Trump's return to power could bring instability across Northeast Asia, potentially prompting both South Korea and Japan to pursue independent paths for their national security. Indeed, Japan revised its National Security Strategy in 2022, deciding to increase defense spending to 2% of GDP and explicitly stating its possession of counterstrike capabilities (the ability to strike enemy bases). South Korea is also accelerating efforts to strengthen its self-reliant defense capabilities. Challenges in Korean Peninsula Security and East Asian Dynamics Issues related to the Korean Peninsula are even more sensitive. The U.S.-North Korea dialogue, which led to the Singapore summit in June 2018 and the Hanoi summit in February 2019, appeared encouraging at first glance but did not result in substantial denuclearization. Furthermore, the Trump administration unilaterally decided to reduce or cancel the ROK-U.S. joint exercises Ulchi Freedom Guardian (UFG) in 2018 and Key Resolve in 2019, demonstrating that U.S. policy prioritized internal strategic interests over merely pressuring North Korea. At the time, many South Korean security experts interpreted this as a signal weakening the alliance framework. As of 2026, with the second Trump administration again discussing reductions in ROK-U.S. exercises, concerns are growing that this pattern could repeat. Trump's foreign policy certainly has positive aspects. His 'transactional alliance' approach provided an opportunity to discuss the sustainability of existing alliance systems and, in some ways, encouraged nations to strengthen their self-defense capabilities. However, as the source materials point out, it cannot be overlooked that this stance weakened international trust and, particularly among allies,
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