Volatile Cryptocurrency Market Sentiment and Geopolitical Factors The cryptocurrency market, which has emerged as a new financial paradigm, is once again rapidly rising to the forefront of the market. Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency, recently surpassed $77,000, capturing investors' attention just as it did during previous rallies. However, this bull market harbors complex factors beyond mere investment. While the primary drivers of this surge are attributed to the easing of geopolitical risks in the Middle East and expectations surrounding the advancement of institutional financial systems, there are also concerns that the excessively rapid market sentiment could trigger new instability. A TokenPost column published on April 18, 2026, titled 'Why Do We Forget So Quickly?', sharply analyzed this phenomenon, warning that the market is too quickly forgetting past lessons. While Bitcoin's price surpassing $77,000 is undoubtedly a positive signal, the speed and context of its rise inherently contain risks that investors must acknowledge. This Bitcoin rally coincided with changes in the Middle East's political landscape. The key factor was Iran's proposal for a limited opening of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's statement provided a sense of stability to the market, fostering expectations for the normalization of major global oil shipping routes. However, the conditional nature of this proposal means that elements of instability persist. Iran set negotiation terms, demanding additional guarantees from the U.S., such as preventing a recurrence of war. The venue and schedule for the second round of negotiations have not yet been finalized. While President Trump mentioned an 'agreement by the end of April,' the prevailing analysis suggests this was merely an expression of confidence, not a firm commitment. Negotiations could break down at any time, and uncertainty in the Middle East continues to pose a potential risk to the market. Consequently, this creates a state where both optimism and anxiety coexist in the market. Although the Middle East is currently maintaining a fragile peace, the possibility of the situation reversing at any moment is making investor sentiment highly sensitive. Concurrently, news of cryptocurrency's integration into mainstream finance is also acting as a major upward driver. The CLARITY Act, debated in the U.S. Congress over the past few months, is a bill aimed at ensuring transparency in the cryptocurrency market. It is expected to guarantee regulatory clarity while strengthening investor protection. Furthermore, coinciding with the recovery of the U.S. stock market, major financial institutions like Charles Schwab have announced direct spot Bitcoin trading services for individual investors, instilling strong confidence among them. This is interpreted as a signal that cryptocurrencies are establishing themselves not merely as speculative assets but as an integral part of institutional finance. Moreover, recent prime brokerage data from Goldman Sachs indicates that most hedge funds have not yet fully built out their cryptocurrency positions. This suggests that there is still room for further buying in the market and that institutional investor demand is likely to continue. The forecast that Bitcoin could reach a new all-time high in the first half of 2026 is also made in this context. However, rapid surges are always a double-edged sword. The collapse of the put-call skew and the surge in the call skew in the options market are being detected, raising concerns that investors are being driven into 'panic buying' – a classic sign of the fear of missing out (FOMO). This is considered an indicator of excessive overheating, demonstrating that emotional decisions, rather than reason and logical judgment, are dominating the market. The Peril of Panic Buying Amid Institutional Entry Expectations The TokenPost column emphasizes that panic buying is just as dangerous as panic selling. Panic selling is driven by the 'fear of falling prices,' while panic buying is driven by the 'fear of missing out on rising prices.' Both are essentially the same, as they are decisions based on fear rather than reason. In situations of panic buying, the gains of a few are unlikely to outweigh the overall exposed risks, recalling the sharp downturns the cryptocurrency market has experienced in the past. Another characteristic of current cryptocurrency market sentiment stems from the rapid mobility of information. According to the column, due to factors such as algorithmic trading, SNS-based information dissemination, the 24/7 nature of the cryptocurrency market, and impromptu statements from policymakers, the psychological cycles that once unfolded over several months are now compressed into just a few weeks. This 'gap between the speed of emotion and the speed of information' carries significant risks even during a sustained bull market. Algorithmic trading executes trades rapidly, devoid of human emotion, but it also
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