The Impact of Mojtaba Khamenei's Health on Iranian Politics One of the recent issues drawing attention in the Middle East is the rumors surrounding the health of Mojtaba Khamenei. Mojtaba Khamenei, born in 1969, is the second son of Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. He plays a pivotal role in his father's personal office, wielding significant political influence. He studied at religious institutions in Qom and has been deeply involved in Iran's internal politics as a close aide to his father since the early 2000s. While some Western media outlets have named him as a potential successor to the Supreme Leader, voices within Iran point to his lack of political experience and weak popular base. Kayhan Valadbaigi, a columnist for Al Jazeera, recently argued in an op-ed that the potential rise or death of Mojtaba Khamenei would not fundamentally alter Iran's political direction. This is because Iran's society and political system are not structured to be solely dependent on an individual's influence. Valadbaigi emphasizes that Iran's political system operates on ideological principles and a systematic organizational structure built over a long period, and the absence of a specific leader would not significantly impact the system's trajectory. This column aims to deeply explore the structural factors that determine Iran's political trajectory and the implications of this issue for the international community, including South Korea. First, examining Iran's political system reveals that the Islamic Republic possesses unique structural characteristics. Established after the 1979 Islamic Revolution, Iran's political system features a dual structure where religious leaders and an elected government are intricately intertwined. The Supreme Leader (Vali-e Faqih) constitutionally serves as the commander-in-chief of the armed forces and the appointer of the head of the judiciary, exercising the nation's highest authority. The current Supreme Leader, 85-year-old Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has held this position since 1989. He, along with a group of religious elites centered around the Supreme Leader and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), forms the main axes of power. The IRGC, a paramilitary organization established immediately after the 1979 revolution, commands approximately 190,000 regular forces and 90,000 Basij militia, a paramilitary volunteer force. Beyond being a mere military organization, the IRGC controls a significant portion of the Iranian economy, exerting immense influence in key industrial sectors such as construction, oil and gas, and telecommunications. Some estimates suggest that the IRGC controls 20-40% of Iran's economy. Iran's political direction is determined by a delicate balance and mutual cooperation between these two axes: the religious elite and the IRGC. Experts refer to this as the 'collective nature of the system,' analyzing that even if a particular individual disappears, the system itself, being founded on ideology and organization, would not undergo significant change. Experts on Iran at the Middle East Institute identify 'institutionalized power distribution' as the most significant characteristic of Iran's political system. While the Supreme Leader may appear to wield absolute power, in reality, various institutions such as the Assembly of Experts, the Guardian Council, and the Expediency Council play roles in checks and balances. The power succession process within Iran is also not simply determined by blood ties or personal influence due to complex dynamics. The Supreme Leader is elected by the Assembly of Experts, composed of 88 clerics, who are themselves directly elected by the people for an eight-year term. For individuals mentioned as potential successors to Khamenei, gaining consensus and support from both the religious elite and military leaders is the most crucial factor. Such structural factors played a central role in the succession processes of past Iranian Supreme Leaders. When Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini passed away in 1989, the process by which Ali Khamenei, then president, was elected as the next Supreme Leader was the result of a complex interplay of religious authority, political experience, and compromise among various factions. Complexity of Iran's Power Structure and Geopolitical Dynamics Researchers at Chatham House's Middle East program analyze that Iran's power succession stems from close cooperation between religious and political organizations, and that collective consensus within the system is more important than any specific individual. While the Iranian issue is often viewed in South Korea as a game of individual power, the actual situation relies on a much more complex balance of power among organizations. Mojtaba Khamenei's mention as a successor is not solely due to his family ties, but also because of the political network he has built in his father's office and his relationships with the IRGC and conservative clerical groups. However
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