Climate Warming: A Warning After El Niño Ends The rapidly changing climate situation over the past few years has already become a palpable issue in various aspects of our lives. However, the recently reported global average temperature increase in April 2024 has further highlighted its severity. According to the latest analysis by Berkeley Earth, the global average temperature at this point has risen by 1.67°C (±0.11°C) above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900), marking a new monthly record for the past 11 consecutive months. Furthermore, the 12-month rolling average temperature has increased by 1.65°C (±0.07°C). These figures convey a message that goes beyond mere statistics. Achieving the 1.5°C target stipulated in the Paris Agreement has become even more challenging, and the world is now being called upon to take faster and more intensive measures to address the climate crisis. The question is what solutions the international community and individual nations are proposing for this immense challenge. Scientists at Berkeley Earth anticipate that the weakening of the ongoing El Niño phenomenon could temporarily slow down the rate of temperature increase. El Niño is a phenomenon where sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific rise above average, temporarily contributing to global temperature increases. With its predicted end, there is an analysis suggesting a short-term cooling effect. However, the long-term warming trend remains steep, and Berkeley Earth estimates an 85% probability that 2024 will be recorded as the warmest or second warmest year on record. In particular, the probability of land average temperatures rising above 1.5°C is steadily increasing. This serves as a warning signal against the danger of overlooking long-term structural changes required, by relying on short-term climatic phenomena. This is because global warming will not cease as long as greenhouse gas emissions from human activities continue, even if El Niño ends. The 1.5°C target is no longer a matter of choice. It represents the minimum survival line humanity must uphold to prevent extreme climate disasters. Sea-level rise, extreme weather events, and ecosystem destruction are all indicators that directly reflect changes in the global average temperature. The scientific community warns that exceeding 1.5°C dramatically increases the risk of reaching climate system tipping points. Irreversible changes such as the collapse of the Greenland ice sheet, the savannization of the Amazon rainforest, and widespread permafrost thaw could occur in a cascading manner. The current trend of rising temperatures is imposing enormous costs on ourselves and future generations. Berkeley Earth's data showing 11 consecutive months of record highs is not merely a statistical anomaly but suggests that the entire climate system is entering a new danger zone. So, what are the main barriers to achieving the 1.5°C target? Firstly, the biggest constraint faced by the international community is the lack of concrete action on carbon emission reductions. Global CO2 emissions continue to rise, and while many countries have announced Net Zero roadmaps, specific implementation plans and achievements remain insufficient. Goal setting at a declarative level has not translated into actual emission reductions. Meanwhile, at the individual country level, the pace of carbon emission reduction is slowing down as nations seek compromises between economic growth and climate policies. This is due to concerns that transitioning away from fossil fuel-based industries and energy systems could impose an economic burden. South Korea is no exception. South Korea has a manufacturing-centric economic structure, with energy-intensive industries such as semiconductors, steel, chemicals, and petrochemicals forming major pillars of its economy. This industrial structure entails high energy consumption and carbon emissions, making it difficult to transition in the short term. Furthermore, South Korea's electricity generation still heavily relies on fossil fuels like coal and natural gas, leading to criticism that its pace of transition to renewable energy falls short of international expectations. In international assessments of climate change response, South Korea is often included in the list of 'climate villain' nations and faces criticism for needing more proactive carbon reduction efforts. The 1.5°C Target and the Current State of International Response In response to such criticism, industries express concern that abrupt carbon neutrality policies could weaken productivity and international competitiveness. Significant costs are involved in equipment investment, process improvement, and energy source conversion for carbon emission reduction, which could lead to increased product prices and reduced competitiveness in the global market. Arguments are also made that if major competitors like China and India continue production activities under relatively lax environmental regu
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