Looking into the past can be the key to predicting the future. Recently, similar warning signs have been observed in the cryptocurrency market. An analysis suggests that the correlation between Bitcoin (BTC) and the S&P 500, a major index of the U.S. stock market, is showing unusual movements, with a pattern dubbed the 'death signal' once again foreshadowing a market correction. This warning is not merely an academic discussion but carries significant implications for investors in both cryptocurrency and traditional financial markets. On March 21, 2026, market analyst Tony Severino stated that changes in the correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 suggest the possibility of an impending market collapse. According to Severino's report, historically, major downturns have often occurred when the correlation coefficient between the two assets sharply rebounded after falling to around -0.5. Indeed, during the bear market that lasted from late 2025 to early 2026, the Bitcoin-S&P 500 correlation coefficient reportedly dropped to approximately -0.5 before recently rebounding to -0.10. This pattern mirrors market collapses seen in 2018, 2020, and 2022. Experts warn that the elements indicative of this pattern are once again emerging amidst the current economic climate. Bitcoin's recent movements have been somewhat erratic. In October 2025, Bitcoin peaked at an all-time high of $126,000. However, it subsequently fell by 19%, marking the start of a bear market, and at one point plummeted to around $60,000. Bitcoin then showed signs of recovery, gaining 4.89% over the past month to reach $75,000, drawing significant attention. However, after failing to break past $75,000, it reversed course and is currently trading at $68,584, down 2.41% over the last 24 hours. Experts are divided on whether these complex movements represent a consolidation phase or a precursor to an imminent major downturn. Severino assessed the current limited rebound as an 'initial gain' observed in past patterns, pointing to the possibility of a subsequent price crash of 70-80%. Looking at historical cases, Bitcoin plummeted approximately 85% from around $20,000 to the $3,000 range in 2018, and experienced a sharp decline of over 50% in just a few days during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020. In 2022, it also suffered a long-term bear market, falling approximately 78% from around $70,000 to the $15,000 range. A common thread in all these instances was a sharp fluctuation in the Bitcoin-S&P 500 correlation coefficient. The correlation between cryptocurrency and traditional financial markets involves complex factors that cannot be approached solely through numbers. For instance, digital assets like Bitcoin are classified as risk assets rather than traditional safe-haven assets, and are significantly influenced by investor sentiment and market liquidity. A correlation coefficient in the negative range means that the two assets move in opposite directions. However, a rebound of this coefficient from -0.5 to -0.10 indicates a weakening inverse correlation, which in past cases has served as a signal for the two assets to transition into a phase of simultaneous decline. 2026: Another Potential Collapse? Another factor bolstering Severino's announcement is the current decrease in Bitcoin trading volume. Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin's trading volume has fallen by approximately 41.21%, indicating that investors have entered a wait-and-see phase and that no decisive market direction has been established. A decline in trading volume often signals increased uncertainty among market participants, which can be a precursor to heightened volatility. Historically, sharp drops in trading volume have often been followed by significant price movements once a direction is established. Of course, there is also a possibility that this warning could simply be an excessive concern. Bitcoin has demonstrated its resilience, surviving numerous crises over the past decade. Even after the 2018 market collapse, it eventually opened new horizons, and during the 2020 pandemic, it overcame turmoil to achieve remarkable growth. In 2021, it broke past $69,000, making new history, and in 2024 and 2025, it surpassed $120,000 due to significant institutional investor participation and the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs. Meanwhile, some experts warn that overly negative predictions in the current situation risk negatively impacting market participants' sentiment. One industry analyst argued that 'past patterns do not always accurately replicate the future,' emphasizing the need to examine this warning from multiple perspectives. However, despite such skepticism, Severino's data holds significant implications for investors. Market analysis using technical indicators, in particular, has been a useful tool for predicting short-term volatility. The correlation coefficient quantifies the relationship between assets, serving as an important reference for
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