The advancement of quantum computing technology is accelerating the transformation of global technological structures and security paradigms. A recent MIT Technology Review article (dated March 14, 2026) delved deeply into the potential threats quantum computing poses to global cybersecurity systems, based on data and technical analysis, warning that this technology could fundamentally disrupt modern cryptographic frameworks. Quantum computers, through what is known as 'Quantum Advantage' or 'Quantum Supremacy,' can offer computational speeds impossible with conventional computing methods. The innovativeness of this technology is clearly demonstrated through quantum algorithms, particularly Shor's algorithm, developed by Peter Shor in 1994. Shor's algorithm can solve the integer factorization problem and the discrete logarithm problem, on which existing public-key cryptographic systems like RSA and ECC rely, in polynomial time. This has the potential to fundamentally shake the security of financial, communication, and national defense systems worldwide. According to the MIT Technology Review's analysis, quantum computing technology has the potential to undermine the basic principles of the cryptographic systems we currently trust. Currently, it would take millions of years for a classical supercomputer to decrypt RSA-2048 encryption, but a sufficiently powerful quantum computer could theoretically do it in a matter of hours. Various research findings demonstrating the vulnerability of current public-key encryption methods to quantum computers are raising alarm among security experts. The most critical questions at this juncture are when these security threats will materialize and what countermeasures can be taken. Experts in the quantum computing field offer various predictions regarding when quantum computers could realistically pose significant security threats. Conservative estimates suggest 15-20 years, while optimistic estimates point to 5-10 years for the emergence of a 'Cryptographically Relevant Quantum Computer (CRQC).' Google announced in 2019 that it had demonstrated quantum supremacy with its 53-qubit Sycamore processor, and IBM unveiled its 433-qubit Osprey processor in 2023, increasing qubit counts annually. IBM has announced plans to develop a 1,121-qubit Condor processor by 2025. However, some research suggests that approximately 20 million low-noise qubits would be required to decrypt RSA-2048, indicating that a significant amount of time may still be needed before the actual threat materializes. Nevertheless, the 'Harvest Now, Decrypt Later' strategy is identified as a realistic threat. This strategy involves malicious actors collecting encrypted data now and decrypting it once quantum computers become commercially available. Data requiring long-term security, such as national secrets, personal medical information, and financial transaction records, is considered to be under threat from the present moment. South Korea is gradually implementing preventive measures against these security threats while also seeking to seize new opportunities. The Korea Internet & Security Agency (KISA) is promoting research and dissemination of Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC) technology as a national priority. PQC is a next-generation encryption technology designed to maintain current levels of cryptographic security against attacks from quantum computers. The U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) has been running a competition for PQC standardization since 2016, selecting four final standard algorithms in July 2022. These include the lattice-based cryptosystems CRYSTALS-Kyber (for key exchange) and CRYSTALS-Dilithium (for digital signatures), as well as the hash-based signature schemes SPHINCS+ and FALCON. NIST plans to publish the final standards for these algorithms by 2024, and government agencies and businesses worldwide are preparing to transition their cryptographic systems based on these standards. Korean government agencies and domestic IT companies are also intensifying research, focusing on PQC standardization and commercialization. The Korean cryptography community has participated in the international standardization process by submitting various algorithms to the NIST PQC competition. Furthermore, major IT companies are conducting performance tests of PQC algorithms and verifying their compatibility with existing systems. Samsung Electronics is researching ways to apply PQC to 5G and 6G communication security, and the financial sector is exploring the possibility of combining blockchain with PQC. PQC technology is expected to be more than just an innovation in encryption; it will be a strategic foundation for strengthening national competitiveness. Nations that preemptively establish cryptographic standards can secure leadership in the global digital economy. Particularly for countries with highly developed digital infrastructure like South Korea, the economic ripple effect
Related Articles